The titanium industry is expected to recover in the future based on the demand from the aviation industry

In recent years, the aviation industry has accounted for about half of the global titanium consumption, and the industrial demand for titanium has also reached over 30%. The application momentum of titanium in civilian use is also on the rise. However, industrial titanium is widely used and its cyclical fluctuations are far less than those in the aviation industry. Therefore, many foreign scholars believe that the aviation industry, especially commercial aviation, plays the most decisive role in the demand side of the titanium industry.

Historically, each major cycle in the titanium industry has been closely related to the ups and downs of the aviation industry. Based on the comparison of major events in terms of price and fundamental supply and demand over the past nearly 40 years, among the 19 major events that triggered fluctuations in the titanium market, 15 were caused by the demand side, and 11 of them were due to changes in commercial aviation demand.

The current recovery and warming of the aviation industry is bound to drive a significant increase in the demand for aviation titanium materials. Firstly, the current recovery of the aviation industry has led to an increase in titanium usage per unit of aircraft, as evidenced by the successful test flights of large wide-body aircraft with high titanium usage per unit (Boeing 787 and 747-8), and the accelerated production expectations in the next two years, which will significantly boost the demand for titanium materials used in aviation. Secondly, we believe that the destocking of titanium materials in the aviation industry is coming to an end. There are two pieces of evidence for this: First, although the volume of air orders has dropped significantly in the past two years, leading to a decline in the demand for aviation titanium, the global delivery volume of commercial aircraft remains at a high level and even rises slightly. In 2009, the global demand for titanium used in aviation dropped by nearly 30% or more, and a very important reason for this is the destocking of the aviation industry. Global orders for commercial aircraft have dropped sharply and have fallen back to around the level of 2003-04.